Why long-term plans don't work and how to fix them

Overview
Yearly software development plans often assume perfect knowledge and no unexpected events, leading teams to chase schedule over value. This blog post explains why long-term plans are detrimental, how they misalign incentives, and suggests more flexible, outcome-focused practices.

Key Takeaways

• Long-term plans create incentive misalignment, rewarding schedule adherence over value.
• Assumptions that nothing will go wrong, that requirements are known, and that estimates are exact are unrealistic.
• Bugs and unforeseen events inevitably cause delays, leading to scope cuts or technical debt.
• Rigid plans encourage corner-cutting, resulting in broken features and a vicious cycle.
• Adopting iterative, feedback-driven approaches mitigates these risks.

Who Would Benefit

• Engineering managers and technical leads overseeing product roadmaps.
• Product owners and developers who plan yearly releases.
• Leaders interested in improving delivery effectiveness and reducing technical debt.

Frameworks and Methodologies

• Agile iterative development
• Lean product development
• Continuous delivery and feedback loops