How to simplify complex decisions by cleaving the facts

Overview
The article explains a practical approach to making complex decisions by breaking them into factual upsides and downsides. It guides readers on how to invest in positive outcomes, reject options with significant risks, and apply suitable decision frameworks to reach clearer, more confident choices.

Key Takeaways

• Separate the facts of any decision into clear upsides and downsides.
• Prioritize investment in options with strong upside potential.
• Use downside risks as veto points to eliminate unsafe choices.
• Apply a simple decision framework to structure the evaluation process.
• Communicate decisions transparently using the cleaved fact model.

Who Would Benefit

• Engineering managers facing trade-off decisions.
• Product leaders evaluating feature priorities.
• Technical leaders needing a repeatable decision process.
• Teams dealing with high-stakes project choices.

Frameworks and Methodologies

• Upside/Downside analysis.
• Veto-by-downside rule.
• Simple decision matrix.