How to tell your manager you can't predict the future

The core argument is that managers often demand precise delivery dates even though software development is inherently unpredictable. The article argues that leaders should stop treating estimates as hard commitments and instead communicate the uncertainty behind them. It points to Scrum's use of the Fibonacci scale and planning poker as mechanisms that acknowledge variability. By embracing these tools, leaders can surface the true risk and help managers set realistic expectations. The piece also warns that pressure from C-level executives, rooted in Taylorist thinking, fuels the demand for fixed scope and time. Leaders must educate upward, using concrete examples to illustrate why exact dates are a lie. Finally, the author uses the Matrix metaphor to suggest that offering managers a choice between "red or blue pills" is futile; instead, leaders should guide them toward the right perspective on uncertainty, turning vague estimates into actionable conversation.