How to tell your manager you can't predict the future

Overview
This article addresses the common challenge technical leaders face when asked to provide precise estimates for future work. It explains why exact predictions are unrealistic and offers practical communication strategies for managers and engineers to set realistic expectations.

Key Takeaways

• Accurate estimates are often impossible; focus on ranges and probabilities.
• Communicate uncertainty transparently to build trust with stakeholders.
• Use Agile practices such as relative sizing and continuous refinement.
• Frame discussions around outcomes and value rather than exact dates.

Who Would Benefit

• Engineering managers and tech leads.
• Product owners and project managers.
• Scrum masters and Agile coaches.
• Developers who need to discuss timelines with leadership.

Frameworks and Methodologies

• Scrum
• Agile estimation techniques (Story points, T-shirt sizing)