A Vision For Product Teams

Generative AI is set to shrink product teams dramatically. In the next three to ten years the author predicts that delivery will be largely automated, leaving discovery as the primary activity. Teams that once had six engineers, a product manager and a designer could operate with just three core roles. Current AI tools already boost engineer productivity by 20-30%, allowing companies to replace eight-person squads with five or six. Similar gains are appearing for designers, while product owners focused on delivery face the greatest risk of automation. The author urges these people to upskill now. The remaining competencies - business sense, user experience, and deep technical implementation - stay distinct, so a product manager, designer, and engineer will still be needed for most human-facing products. However, the reduced headcount means lower costs, faster iterations, and higher autonomy for the smaller teams. For a mid-size product organization the cost drop could shrink 15 teams of eight down to a handful of three-person teams, cutting annual payroll from tens of millions to a few million. The lower "table stakes" may trigger a wave of new startups, but also creates a disruptive transition for many workers who must retrain or shift careers.